WS #13581

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market driver, with the narrative now ESCALATING despite diplomatic hopes. Iran's parliament is advancing a draft bill to ban US/Israeli vessels and impose fines up to 20% of cargo value, while Iranian forces clashed with 'hostile targets' near Qeshm Island, and Houthi missile attacks killed 58 Saudi-backed Yemeni troops. This has pushed Brent +1.4% to $83.65 and WTI +1.3% to $78.26, with both benchmarks still down >7% on the week. The US jobs report due Friday is the next key catalyst, with expectations of ~80k jobs added and a 54% implied probability of a September Fed rate hike. In corporate news, major after-hours movers include: Cloudflare (NET) +15% on Q2 beat and raised guidance, Airbnb (ABNB) +11% on strong Q2, Twilio (TWLO) +17% on double beat, and IonQ (IONQ) mixed after strong Q2 but widened EBITDA loss. Meta (META) faces a new $942M order in a separate case, adding to its $567M New Mexico penalty. Asian markets are cautious, with KOSPI down 5% for the week on AI-capex concerns, and the yen intervention fading after Japan confirmed three-day intervention.