WS #13582

The dominant market narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING despite diplomatic efforts. Iran has formally drafted a bill to bar US and Israeli vessels from the strait, with fines up to 20% of cargo value, and a senior official confirmed transit fees of 5-7% of cargo value, with Chinese vessels exempt. This has driven Brent crude up ~4% to $83.45 and WTI to $78, reversing earlier weekly declines. The Iran-Oman deal is fragile, with Iran denying US negotiations and hard-liners (IRGC) pushing for more concessions, raising doubts about a lasting agreement. This oil spike is pressuring global equities, with Asian markets mixed and Indian indices opening lower. The US jobs report due Friday is the next key catalyst, with a strong print likely reinforcing higher-for-longer rates. In corporate news, Datadog (DDOG) fell 19% despite beating on revenue and earnings and raising guidance, reflecting profit-taking after a strong run. Apple (AAPL) faces a DRAM shortage ahead of iPhone 18 launch, with reports it sought Chinese supplier CXMT but was denied a discount, potentially impacting supply and margins. SpaceX shares rose 6.1% after lockup expiration, with Morgan Stanley seeing $300 target. Meta (META) faces a new $942M order in a separate case, adding to its $567M New Mexico penalty. The yen intervention story is fading, with Japan confirming three-day intervention, but the yen remains weak. Gold is heading for its biggest weekly gain since January, up over 5% to $4,254, as Middle East tensions and rate-cut expectations support safe-haven demand.