WS #13594

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran de-escalation and potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (NBC, Bloomberg, AP, GDELT) corroborating that a deal is close, though Trump admitted the strait is not yet safe and Iran may still strike vessels. This is a STABLE-to-ESCALATING situation: while talks progress, vessel traffic through Hormuz has dwindled to 33 ships this week (vs 50 last week), and Iran is reportedly considering legislation to block US/Israeli vessels. Oil prices are down ~10% on the week (WTI $78.08), reflecting de-escalation hopes, but the risk of renewed disruption remains. The July jobs report is due at 8:30 AM ET, with expectations for 83K jobs and unemployment at 4.2%, but some economists warn of a downside surprise; this is a key macro catalyst for the session. Earnings season continues to drive idiosyncratic moves: Take-Two (TTWO) beat FQ1 but issued soft guidance, Trade Desk (TTD) plunged ~28% on weak Q2 and multiple downgrades, while Doximity (DOCS), Atlassian (TEAM), and Cloudflare (NET) surged on strong results. Meta (META) faces a $942M New Mexico liability ruling, adding regulatory overhang. Copper is tightening toward all-time highs on US/China demand, and European gas storage is at seasonally low levels, supporting energy prices. The 'Sell America' trade is returning as Fed and yen risks mount, and BofA warns Mag7 strength is needed to counter cheap Chinese compute.