WS #13595

The dominant market-moving event is the July US jobs report, which came in sharply below expectations: nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 versus +80,000 consensus, with prior months revised down by a combined 103,000. This has triggered a dovish repricing of Fed expectations—markets now see a September rate hike as less likely, Treasury yields are falling, and gold has surged nearly 3% to $4,365.86/oz. The weak labor data, combined with a falling dollar/yen (USD/JPY down 0.7% to 157.28) and Japan's finance minister signaling joint intervention readiness with the US, points to a risk-off tone in equities, though futures were initially higher. Separately, the Iran-Hormuz situation remains fluid: Iranian lawmakers are seeking to bar US/Israeli ships from the strait as part of a deal, while Iran and Oman appear close to an agreement on reopening—this is a counter-signal to the de-escalation narrative, keeping oil prices supported (Brent ~$79-80). Earnings continue to drive idiosyncratic moves: Airbnb surged ~7% on strong results, Atlassian jumped 31.6% on guidance, Cloudflare rose 16.1%, while Trade Desk remains depressed. Meta faces a $567M child-safety fine (total $942M), adding regulatory overhang. The 'Sell America' trade and yen carry-trade unwind risks are escalating, with the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.28% and yen shorts at -205,000 contracts.