WS #13633

The dominant market narrative is de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, with a US official reporting progress in Iran-Oman talks and the US set to lift its blockade once a deal is announced. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Seeking Alpha, GDELT) and is pressuring oil prices, with Brent down 0.45% and WTI near $78. This counters the earlier bearish oil thesis and is bullish for indices and airlines, bearish for energy names. Separately, the US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Russia-Iran sanctions bill (86-11), which could impose tariffs up to 100% on buyers of Russian energy, including China and India; this is a geopolitical escalation but with limited immediate US market impact. In tech, memory shortage is a key theme: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out, and Apple has $1B in chips waiting for DRAM, which is bullish for memory makers (MU, SK Hynix) but bearish for Apple's supply chain. AMD's acquisition of Taalas adds to its AI chip portfolio, a positive for AMD. Meta's $567M judgment in New Mexico is a negative headline but manageable relative to its cash flow. The Fed independence issue is escalating as Trump renews efforts to fire Lisa Cook, which could weigh on market confidence. Overall, the market is in a risk-on mode with S&P 500 at record highs, but the memory shortage and Fed independence are undercurrents to watch.