WS #13634

The dominant market narrative remains de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US set to lift its blockade once an Iran-Oman deal is announced, corroborated by multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, Polymarket, GDELT). This is pressuring oil prices (Brent down, WTI near $78) and is bullish for indices and airlines, bearish for energy names. However, a new data point emerged: Saudi Arabia's oil exports to the US have fallen to zero barrels for the first time in years due to Iran's closure of the Strait and Yemeni attacks on Aramco facilities, which could tighten US crude supply and partially offset the bearish oil thesis. Separately, the US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Russia-Iran sanctions bill (86-11), which could impose tariffs up to 100% on buyers of Russian energy, including China and India; this is a geopolitical escalation but with limited immediate US market impact. In tech, the memory shortage theme is escalating: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out across Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with long-term agreements locking in supply for AI companies; this is bullish for memory makers (MU, SK Hynix) but bearish for Apple's supply chain. Apple is also reportedly launching three new 'Ultra' products (iPhone, AirPods, MacBook) between late 2026 and early 2027, which could be a positive catalyst for AAPL. Meta's $567M judgment in New Mexico is a negative headline but manageable relative to its cash flow; the stock rose 1.2% despite the ruling. The Fed independence issue is escalating as Trump renews efforts to fire Lisa Cook, which could weigh on market confidence. Overall, the market is in a risk-on mode with S&P 500 at record highs, but the memory shortage and Fed independence are undercurrents to watch.