WS #13665
No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The dominant US-Iran conflict narrative remains unchanged, with no counter-signals or de-escalation observed. All current signals are consistent with the previous synthesis.
Topics
Key developments
- Iran's IRGC says Hormuz reopening conditional on US accepting Iran's terms, not Oman talks
- UAE says Iranian missile hit ADNOC tanker in Strait of Hormuz, 16th vessel attacked
- US Senate passes Lindsey Graham Russia sanctions bill (86-11), authorizing up to 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
- Ukraine drone strikes hit two Rosneft refineries (Syzran and Ilsky), causing fires
- Berkshire Hathaway Q2 operating earnings +16% to $12.98B, cash drops to $365.5B with $4.5B buybacks
- Apple enables Alibaba's Qwen AI on Macs in China, official guide published
- Weak July nonfarm payrolls (-23K) flip Fed odds toward hold in September, oil above $80 keeps inflation risks