WS #13666

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on global energy markets, which is ESCALATING. Iran's IRGC explicitly stated that the Strait of Hormuz will only reopen if the US accepts its conditions, directly contradicting earlier optimism about an imminent Iran-Oman deal. This was corroborated by multiple sources (ANSA, GDELT, ANI, Tasnim), and the UAE confirmed an Iranian missile attack on an ADNOC tanker in the strait, with Jordan and Qatar condemning it. This escalation supports elevated oil prices and is bearish for global equities, particularly airlines and shipping. However, a significant counter-signal emerged: Ukraine has agreed to halt drone strikes on non-Russian tankers and Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure critical for Kazakh oil exports, following US pressure. This could ease some supply concerns and partially offset the bearish oil thesis. Additionally, the US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act, which authorizes up to 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, potentially affecting China and India and adding to trade tensions. In corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway reported strong Q2 earnings, with operating profit up 16% and a notable shift to deploying its cash hoard through buybacks and equity purchases, which is a positive signal for BRK.B and the broader market. Apple's integration of Alibaba's Qwen AI into its Chinese Macs is a positive for AAPL and BABA, though it faces headwinds from CXMT RAM pricing disputes. Cathie Wood's ARK bought $45M in SpaceX, Coinbase, and Circle, boosting those names. Overall, the market is caught between a hawkish oil shock and a dovish Fed repricing after weak NFP data, with Brent above $80.