WS #13675

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING. Iran struck an ADNOC tanker in the strait, confirmed by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, FT, UKMTO, UAE statements), even as Iran and Oman claim to be 'very close' to a deal on new transit routes. However, Iran's foreign minister and IRGC explicitly state that reopening the strait is conditional on US accepting Iran's demands, including compensation and lifting sanctions, dampening hopes of a quick resolution. This mixed signal keeps oil prices volatile and supports energy and shipping-related tickers while pressuring airlines and consumer discretionary. Separately, the US Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill (86-11) that could impose 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, notably India and China, which may have second-order effects on global trade and energy flows. In tech, Nvidia is reportedly investing up to $3B in Lancium, a Blackstone-backed power firm, highlighting the AI infrastructure buildout; Amazon raised AI capex to $220B for 2026; and SpaceX/Tesla announced a massive AI chip plant in Texas. These reinforce the AI trade. Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 cash pile declined for the first time in years due to buybacks, a notable signal of capital deployment. Also, a Coldcard bitcoin wallet firmware flaw led to an $88M theft, a negative for crypto sentiment. The US is seeking a diplomatic off-ramp in the Iran war, per CNN, which could be a counter-signal to escalation, but no concrete de-escalation has materialized.