WS #13676

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market theme, but the narrative is now STABLE-to-DE-ESCALATING with a clear counter-signal emerging. Multiple sources (Reuters, JNS, Oman Times, VOV) corroborate that Iran and Oman are 'very close' to a deal on a temporary shipping route, and a US official stated Washington will lift the blockade of Iranian ports once the deal is announced. However, Iran's IRGC and foreign minister explicitly condition full reopening on US accepting Tehran's demands (compensation, sanctions relief), so oil prices remain volatile. The UAE confirmed a fresh Iranian missile strike on an ADNOC tanker in the strait (Al Jazeera, bsky, TNND), but this is consistent with the ongoing pattern and does not represent a new escalation. The key counter-signal is the US diplomatic off-ramp: Gen Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, privately urged senior officials to scale down the war, citing limited military options and depleted weapons stocks (CNN via Pakistan Today). This dampens the bearish escalation thesis and supports a potential de-escalation trade. Separately, the US Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill (86-11) that could impose 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil (India, China), but Kotak Securities argues India's economy is well-insulated given the Russian crude discount has narrowed to $2-3/bbl, limiting the macro impact. In tech, Nvidia's $3B investment in Lancium (Blackstone-backed power firm) and Amazon's financing of a 7.65 GW gas plant in Texas for AI data centers reinforce the AI infrastructure buildout, bullish for NVDA, AMZN, and power/energy names. Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 cash decline to $365.5B amid buybacks is a notable capital deployment signal. Apple's record Q3 earnings (revenue $109.4B, +16.4% YoY, EPS $2.02) and India's proposed tax exemption extension to 2041 for contract manufacturing are positive for AAPL. The Clarity Act vote pushed to September is a minor negative for crypto sentiment, while Brazil's central bank ordered 24-hour holds on large crypto transfers abroad, a regulatory headwind for crypto exchanges.