WS #13714

The dominant theme remains the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is STABLE but with new diplomatic signals. Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi says a deal with Oman on a temporary shipping route is 'very close,' but Tehran insists the strait will not fully reopen unless the US changes behavior, lifts sanctions, and releases frozen assets. This is corroborated by multiple sources (ANSA, EconoTimes, GDELT). The UAE reported an ADNOC-linked carrier was struck by a missile in the strait, underscoring persistent security risks. These developments suggest a potential partial de-escalation (temporary route) but no full resolution, keeping oil prices elevated and shipping/energy stocks volatile. Separately, the Pentagon is pushing defense companies to boost weapons production due to depleted stocks, corroborated by AP and NYT reporting, which is bullish for defense contractors. In tech, SK Hynix announced a $40B investment in HBM/AI memory, and Omdia forecasts 94% semiconductor market growth, reinforcing the AI memory supercycle; Apple's attempt to buy cheap DRAM from China's CXMT was rejected, signaling tight DRAM supply and pricing power for memory makers. China's July CPI rose 0.5% y/y (below prior) and PPI rose 3.5% (easing), indicating mild deflationary pressure, which may support stimulus expectations. The Senate Majority Leader filed for a procedural vote on the Crypto Clarity Act, a positive catalyst for crypto-related stocks. No counter-signals to the Hormuz crisis emerged; the Iran-Oman talks are a partial counter but not a full resolution.