WS #13715

The Strait of Hormuz crisis remains the dominant theme, but the narrative is now STABLE-to-DE-ESCALATING with a key new data point: Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a maximalist list of conditions for reopening the strait (end US threats, lift blockade, withdraw forces, compensate for war damage, lift sanctions, release frozen assets), while simultaneously Iran and Oman are 'very close' to a shipping protocol deal. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AOL/Guardian, The Week, Tribune, Israel National News, GDELT). The UAE confirmed an ADNOC-linked tanker was struck by an Iranian missile, underscoring persistent risk. The Iran-Oman deal is a partial counter-signal to the bearish oil thesis, but the maximalist conditions mean no full resolution, keeping oil prices elevated and energy/shipping stocks volatile. Separately, the US Senate passed the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (86-11), allowing 100% tariffs on countries importing Russian oil/gas (China, India, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Slovakia) - this is a new escalation in trade policy with direct implications for global supply chains and India/China exposure. In energy infrastructure, a fire broke out at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery (already offline from prior Houthi strike), and the Iraq-Turkey pipeline pact was renewed for one year, securing Baghdad's only export outlet. These are minor but add to supply-side risk. In tech, Apple removed a support page referencing Alibaba's Qwen integration for Apple Intelligence in China, signaling regulatory delays for Apple's AI rollout in China - a negative for AAPL's China AI narrative. Separately, Apple raised trade-in values for iPhones and other devices, and India extended tax exemptions for Apple's contract manufacturers to 2041, supporting AAPL's India manufacturing expansion. China's July CPI rose 0.5% y/y (below 0.8% forecast) and PPI rose 3.5% (below 3.8% forecast), confirming deflationary pressure and supporting stimulus expectations - mildly positive for China-exposed names. The Pentagon's push for defense production (from prior window) continues to be corroborated by newzblock, supporting defense contractors. No major counter-signals to the Hormuz crisis emerged beyond the Iran-Oman talks.