WS #13781

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran/Hormuz standoff, but this window shows a notable shift: President Trump explicitly stated the US is 'only semi-negotiating' with Iran and relying on economic pressure rather than new military strikes, while Iran's crude exports from Khark Island have reportedly halted amid the naval blockade. These developments, corroborated by Al Jazeera, CNBC, and multiple GDELT sources, suggest the standoff is STABLE but with a de-escalatory tilt on the US side, yet Iran's conditions for reopening Hormuz remain maximalist, keeping oil prices elevated. The US Senate passed a bill allowing 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, which could pressure India and China and has second-order effects on global trade. Additionally, Apple is reportedly testing DRAM chips from Chinese supplier CXMT for iPhones and MacBooks, a significant supply-chain shift that could impact memory suppliers and Apple's margins. Typhoon Dolphin has caused over a million evacuations in China and record rainfall in Shanghai, disrupting transportation and potentially affecting regional supply chains. The Fed's stance remains hawkish despite weak jobs data, with September rate hike odds at 44%, and the upcoming July CPI report is a key catalyst.