WS #13782

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran/Hormuz standoff, which is STABLE but with a de-escalatory tilt on the US side, yet Iran's conditions for reopening Hormuz remain maximalist, keeping oil prices elevated. Brent crude is up ~1% to $84.39, WTI to $78.77, as Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued new demands (compensation, sanctions relief, lifting blockade) and the IRGC declared the strait a 'battlefield.' Houthi drone strikes on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery add supply risk. The US Senate passed the Graham bill allowing 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, pressuring India and China. Apple is reportedly testing DRAM chips from Chinese supplier CXMT for iPhones and MacBooks, a significant supply-chain shift that could impact memory suppliers and Apple's margins. Typhoon Dolphin has caused over a million evacuations in China and record rainfall in Shanghai, disrupting transportation and potentially affecting regional supply chains. The Fed's stance remains hawkish despite weak jobs data, with September rate hike odds at 44%, and the upcoming July CPI report is a key catalyst.