WS #13783

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz standoff, which is ESCALATING on the Iranian side despite US de-escalatory posture. Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six maximalist demands for reopening the strait (end of war, lifting blockade/sanctions, compensation, asset release, troop withdrawal), and Foreign Minister Araqchi confirmed talks with Oman are near-final but explicitly denied direct US talks, dashing hopes for a quick reopening. Brent crude is up ~1% to $84.40, WTI to $78.83, with a 5%+ three-session gain, as the market prices in prolonged disruption. This is corroborated across multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, Euronews, FXStreet, GDELT). Counter-signal: ADNOC Gas is considering a new LNG export facility on UAE's east coast to bypass Hormuz, and Kazakhstan is exploring increased oil transit via Azerbaijan (BTC/Baku-Supsa), both of which could partially offset supply risk over the medium term. Separately, Ukraine's drone strike on Russia's Taneco refinery in Tatarstan killed 12 and wounded 39, marking one of Kyiv's deadliest attacks and adding to Russian fuel supply concerns; this is corroborated by multiple outlets (RTE, Kyiv Independent, Al Jazeera). On the macro front, weak US jobs data (23k job losses, downward revisions) has slashed September Fed hike odds to ~43% from 64%, boosting global equities and tech, with the S&P 500 at a record close and Asian markets rallying; however, oil-driven inflation fears and the upcoming July CPI (Wednesday) remain key risks. Apple is reportedly testing CXMT DRAM chips for iPhones/MacBooks, a significant supply-chain shift that could pressure memory suppliers and impact Apple's margins, though US regulatory hurdles remain. TSMC reported July revenue up 44.7% YoY to $16.03B, reinforcing AI-driven semiconductor demand. Arm delivered record Q1 revenue of $1.29B (+22% YoY) with data center royalties more than doubling, and its AGI CPU demand exceeds $2B. Berkshire Hathaway has begun deploying its ~$400B cash pile via buybacks, a notable capital allocation shift under new CEO Greg Abel.