WS #13841

The dominant market theme remains the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, which is ESCALATING. Oil prices surged ~5% on Monday (Brent to $87.72, WTI to $82.13) after President Trump demanded compensation from Iran for 50 years of damages, a new tit-for-tat demand that dims hopes for a deal. This is corroborated across multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Reuters, GDELT, Bloomberg). The US SPR has fallen below 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, and diesel prices jumped 7.4% on refinery attacks in Russia and Saudi Arabia. This is bearish for airlines and consumer stocks, bullish for energy producers and refiners. The Fed narrative is shifting: 3 policymakers broke ranks to demand a rate hike, while Chair Warsh held rates, and the 30-year yield hit 5.27% (highest since 2007). US CPI data due Wednesday/Thursday will be critical. In tech, Intel announced a $15 billion share sale to fund its foundry build-out, sending shares down 4% — a negative signal for INTC but potentially positive for TSMC competitors. Nvidia's $500B AI financing partnership with Apollo, BlackRock, etc. is confirmed as third-party capital, not revenue, which tempers the bullish narrative. Cathie Wood bought $26.6M of NVDA while trimming Palantir, and Michael Burry has re-established bearish puts on PLTR, calling it worth under $1. Riot Platforms jumped 25% after-hours on a $9.1B AI deal with Anthropic, a positive for crypto miners pivoting to AI. The Senate advanced the Clarity Act (crypto regulatory framework), a positive for crypto adoption. China is restricting AI engineer travel, and Microsoft is reportedly accelerating its Maia 300 AI chip to reduce Nvidia dependence — a potential long-term threat to NVDA. Overall, the market is risk-off due to oil and geopolitical uncertainty, with tech stocks like NVDA and AAPL down 2%.