WS #13842

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, which is ESCALATING. President Trump claimed 100% control of the strait, demanded reparations from Iran, and kept military escalation open, while Iran's parliament approved a bill barring US and Israeli ships from the waterway. Oil prices rose for a fourth day, with Brent near $87.81 and WTI at $82.20, after a 5% surge on Monday. This is corroborated across multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Reuters, GDELT, Bloomberg). The US SPR fell to 298.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, and the IEA's 400 million barrel release is nearly exhausted. This is bearish for airlines and consumer stocks, bullish for energy producers and refiners. Separately, Singapore sharply raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 4.5%-5.5% on AI-related boost, citing that the US-Iran conflict's impact was less severe than feared, a counter-signal to the bearish macro narrative. In tech, Microsoft is reportedly accelerating its Maia 300 AI chip launch to September, with TSMC securing 300,000 units capacity for next year, a potential long-term threat to NVDA. Nvidia's $500B AI financing platform is confirmed as third-party capital, not revenue, tempering the bullish narrative. Trump Media expanded Bitcoin holdings to $900 million, a positive for crypto sentiment. The Fed narrative is shifting: market-implied probability of a September rate hike fell to 44% from 67% a week ago, after weak nonfarm payrolls, with CPI due Wednesday/Thursday as the next catalyst. Overall, the market is risk-off due to oil and geopolitical uncertainty, with tech stocks like NVDA and AAPL down 2%.