WS #13856

The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz oil crisis narrative is ESCALATING, reversing the prior de-escalation signal. Multiple sources (WSJ, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Seeking Alpha) report that US forces fired on a Panama-flagged ship attempting to break the blockade, and that US-Iran talks have hit new obstacles with both sides exchanging new demands. Oil prices are rising (WTI above $81, possibly $88), and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined to only six commodity ships, down from 11. This is a counter-signal to the previous peace optimism, likely to push oil higher and weigh on equities. However, there is a counter-development: a dozen ships are switching oil outside Hormuz, indicating barrels are still flowing, which could dampen the oil spike. Separately, the AI infrastructure theme remains strong: Chevron (CVX) is up 4% premarket on an AI data center power deal, and Babcock & Wilcox (BW) soared on a Q2 beat and data center power agreement. Intel (INTC) is down 4.6% premarket on its $20B stock offering, while Riot Platforms (RIOT) received a price target raise to $40 from HC Wainwright. On Holding (ONON) tumbled premarket despite an EPS beat, on revenue miss. Sea Limited (SE) rallied on strong Q2 revenue growth. The macro data shows NFIB Small Business Optimism at 99.8, well above estimates, and ADP weekly employment change slowed to 8.25K, reinforcing a softening labor market ahead of CPI.