WS #13857

The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz oil crisis narrative is STABLE-to-ESCALATING, with multiple sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Financial Post) reporting that Trump has hardened his stance with new demands, clouding prospects for an immediate agreement. However, a key counter-signal persists: a Bloomberg/Financial Post report confirms that a key oil supply valve via shuttle transits through the Strait of Hormuz is continuing to function despite attacks, and Polymarket markets show active trading on 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11/15/31' and 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31' — indicating uncertainty but not a clear escalation. Oil prices are approaching $90/bbl (ICE Brent), with WTI likely above $81, stoking inflation fears and weighing on Treasuries and equity futures. This is a counter-signal to the previous peace optimism, likely to push oil higher and weigh on equities. Separately, the AI infrastructure theme remains strong: Nvidia is developing Nemotron 4 with at least a trillion parameters (The Information, corroborated by CNBC on Nemotron 3.5 Lightning release), and Nvidia is partnering with BlackRock and Apollo on a $500B financing plan to establish AI infrastructure as an investable asset class. IBM and Together AI signed a $240M deal for an Nvidia-powered AI inference cluster on IBM Cloud. Babcock & Wilcox (BW) landed a 20-turbine deal (1 GW) for data center power demand. Intel (INTC) is down ~4% premarket on its $20B stock offering, with a fade confirmed below VWAP. Riot Platforms (RIOT) received a price target raise to $25 from Piper Sandler and Bernstein sees 80% upside after a reported $9.1B Anthropic deal, with AI colocation now 84% of target EV. On Holding (ONON) slumped on slowing sales growth concerns. Sea Limited (SE) rallied on strong Q2 revenue growth. The macro data shows NFIB Small Business Optimism at 99.8, well above estimates, and ADP weekly employment change slowed to 8.25K, reinforcing a softening labor market ahead of CPI.