WS #13858

The dominant US-Iran/Hormuz oil crisis narrative is STABLE-to-ESCALATING, with a key counter-signal: Pakistan's defense minister stated the US and Iran are 'close to some sort of arrangement' over the Strait of Hormuz, per Bloomberg, while a separate report confirms a key oil supply valve via shuttle transits through the Strait continues to function despite attacks. However, a US military helicopter struck a Panama-flagged cargo vessel's rudder in the Gulf of Oman after it allegedly attempted to breach the naval blockade, and Houthi rebels renewed attacks on a key Middle East port, indicating ongoing military friction. Oil prices are easing slightly (Brent at $86.90, down 0.93%), with gold up 0.76% to $4,453, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand. The AI infrastructure theme remains strong: Nvidia launched Nemotron 3.5 Lightning open-source model (CNBC, corroborated by The Information on Nemotron 4 with at least a trillion parameters), and IBM & Together AI signed a $240M deal for an Nvidia-powered AI inference cluster on IBM Cloud. Babcock & Wilcox (BW) is up 36% premarket on a Siemens Energy deal for 20 turbines (1 GW) for AI data centers. Intel (INTC) is down ~4% premarket on its $20B stock offering, with a fade confirmed below VWAP. Riot Platforms (RIOT) received a price target raise to $25 from Piper Sandler and Bernstein sees 80% upside after a reported $9.1B Anthropic deal, with AI colocation now 84% of target EV. On Holding (ONON) slumped on slowing sales growth concerns. Sea Limited (SE) rallied on strong Q2 revenue growth. The macro data shows NFIB Small Business Optimism at 99.8, well above estimates, and ADP weekly employment change slowed to 8.25K, reinforcing a softening labor market.