WS #13884

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, which is ESCALATING. Key developments include the US military disabling a Panama-flagged ship attempting to breach the blockade (CENTCOM), IRGC threats against global infrastructure, and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and a cargo ship in Bab el-Mandeb, killing crew. These events, combined with Trump's demand for compensation and his 'I'm their banker' stance, have dimmed hopes for a quick deal, pushing Brent above $88 and WTI above $83. The EIA raised its 2026 crude price forecasts (WTI $80.88, Brent $86.81), reinforcing the bullish oil narrative. Counter-signals include Pakistan's defense minister saying the US and Iran are 'close to a deal' and Qatar indicating advanced negotiations, but these are offset by Iran's insistence that Hormuz stays closed. In corporate news, Nvidia signed MOUs with six Wall Street firms (Goldman, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, KKR) to mobilize over $500 billion for AI infrastructure, a major positive for AI capex names. CME will launch compute futures on Oct 5, creating a new tradable asset class. Apple's Apple Pay chief Jennifer Bailey is retiring in October, a leadership change but not market-moving. On the macro front, the market is pricing a 50/50 chance of a September Fed hike, with CPI due Wednesday expected to show 0.2% core m/m; a soft print could reduce hike odds. The US 3-year note auction saw solid demand (B+ grade).