WS #13885

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, which is ESCALATING. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Rezaei reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets conditions including ending the war, releasing frozen assets, and ceasing regional fighting, directly contradicting earlier optimism from Pakistan and Qatar. This has pushed Brent above $89 and WTI above $84, with the EIA raising 2026 price forecasts (WTI $80.88, Brent $86.81). The US fired on a Panama-flagged ship attempting to breach the blockade, and Houthis struck Saudi military targets and a cargo ship in Bab el-Mandeb, killing crew. Trump's 'I'm their banker' stance and demand for compensation have dimmed deal hopes. Counter-signals include Pakistan's defense minister saying the US and Iran are 'close to a deal' and Qatar indicating advanced negotiations, but these are offset by Iran's insistence that Hormuz stays closed. In corporate news, Nvidia signed MOUs with six Wall Street firms (Goldman, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, KKR) to mobilize over $500 billion for AI infrastructure, a major positive for AI capex names. CME will launch compute futures on Oct 5, creating a new tradable asset class. Apple's Apple Pay chief Jennifer Bailey is retiring in October, a leadership change but not market-moving. On the macro front, the market is pricing a 50/50 chance of a September Fed hike, with CPI due Wednesday expected to show 0.2% core m/m; a soft print could reduce hike odds. The US 3-year note auction saw solid demand (B+ grade).