WS #13889

The dominant US-Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING, with new data points confirming a hardline Iranian stance and active US military action. Iran's oil ministry explicitly stated Hormuz will stay closed until US conditions are met, while US forces fired on a cargo vessel attempting to break the blockade, and Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed to just six vessels Monday. Oil prices extended gains to five straight sessions, with WTI above $83 and Brent near $89, and gold settled at a two-month high. This escalation counters the prior de-escalation hopes from advanced negotiations, which have faded. The AI infrastructure trade remains robust, with Super Micro Computer guiding FY2027 revenue to $65-72B (vs $53.1B consensus) and CoreWeave reporting a $104B backlog, while Lumentum's strong AI optics results corroborate the theme. Oracle's planned layoffs and Meta's $1.4T lawsuit trial add negative sentiment to tech, but the AI capex cycle remains intact.