WS #13890

The dominant US-Iran conflict narrative remains in an ESCALATING phase, with new data points confirming active military engagement. US forces fired on a cargo vessel attempting to break the Iranian blockade in the Gulf of Oman, escalating the Strait of Hormuz crisis and rattling oil supply fears. This corroborates the prior escalation thesis and supports continued upward pressure on oil prices, with WTI trading above $83 and Brent near $89. The AI infrastructure trade remains robust, with Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reporting a Q4 EPS beat of $1.70 (77% above consensus) and issuing FY2027 revenue guidance of $65-72B versus $52.5B consensus, driving shares +7% after hours. CoreWeave (CRWV) also delivered a double beat with revenue of $2.58B (+112% YoY) and a $104B backlog, while Lumentum (LITE) reported a 109% revenue surge on AI optics demand. These results corroborate the ongoing AI capex cycle, though Oracle's planned layoffs and Meta's $1.4T lawsuit trial continue to add negative sentiment to tech. The Colombia earthquake (180-250 dead) is a humanitarian event with limited direct US market impact, but could affect logistics and insurance names. Crypto markets are mixed, with Bitcoin around $63.7K and regulatory news (SEC/CFTC crypto initiatives) providing a neutral-to-positive backdrop.