WS #13900

The dominant US-Iran conflict narrative remains in an escalation phase, with Iran's new security chief reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until US conditions are met, while Trump pivots to sanctions and demands compensation, signaling a longer war. Oil prices remain elevated, with Brent at $88.91 and WTI at $83.20, and the EIA now expects supply disruptions of ~600,000 bpd through end-2027, raising gasoline and diesel price forecasts. This is pressuring equities, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.6%, and Amazon and Alphabet leading declines, while energy and alternative asset managers (Apollo +6.2%, Blackstone +4%) rally on the Nvidia compute-financing platform. The market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of Wednesday's July CPI report, with Treasury yields easing and gold near $4,400/oz. Corporate earnings continue to show strength in AI infrastructure: CoreWeave beat Q2 expectations but reported a $626M loss, Riot Platforms signed a $9.1B AI deal with Anthropic, and Firefly Aerospace delivered a double beat. However, Apple is testing memory chips from China's CXMT, which could pressure Micron, and the company is also stockpiling OLED panels. The US Senate passed a Russia sanctions bill allowing 100% tariffs on top Russian oil importers, and North Korea launched a ballistic missile, adding to geopolitical noise. Overall, the market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of CPI, with tech earnings providing selective bullish signals.