WS #13901

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with the Strait of Hormuz closure persisting as Iran's new security chief reiterates conditions for reopening. Oil prices are elevated (Brent $88.91, WTI $83.20) after a four-day gain, with the EIA now forecasting supply disruptions of ~600,000 bpd through end-2027 and raising gasoline/diesel forecasts. This is pressuring equities (S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.6%) as Amazon (-2.1%) and Alphabet (-3.8%) lead declines, while energy and alternative asset managers (Apollo +6.2%, Blackstone +4%) rally on the Nvidia compute-financing platform. The market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of Wednesday's July CPI report, with Treasury yields easing and gold near $4,400/oz. Corporate earnings continue to show strength in AI infrastructure: CoreWeave beat Q2 expectations but reported a $626M loss, Riot Platforms signed a $9.1B AI deal with Anthropic, and Firefly Aerospace delivered a double beat. However, Apple is testing memory chips from China's CXMT, which could pressure Micron, and the company is also stockpiling OLED panels. The US Senate passed a Russia sanctions bill allowing 100% tariffs on top Russian oil importers, and North Korea launched a ballistic missile, adding to geopolitical noise. Overall, the market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of CPI, with tech earnings providing selective bullish signals.