WS #13902

The dominant market driver remains the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure, which is ESCALATING. Iran's top security official reiterated that Hormuz will remain closed unless the US accepts its conditions (end war, unfreeze assets, stop Gaza/Lebanon wars), and new Houthi attacks in the Red Sea killed four crew members—the first deaths since the war began. Oil prices rose (Brent $88.91, WTI $83.20) on these developments, pressuring equities (S&P 500 -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.60%) ahead of Wednesday's July CPI report. However, a counter-signal emerged: Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed Persian Gulf oil flows have surpassed pre-war levels (~15 million bpd via pipelines and exports), which could dampen the bullish oil thesis if corroborated, though tanker trackers dispute the figures. The market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of CPI, with September rate hike odds at ~48%.