WS #13919

The Middle East oil supply disruption narrative remains in an ESCALATING phase, with no new counter-signals. Iran's top security official reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the US accepts its conditions, and shipping traffic through the strait fell to a weekly low of eight vessels, down from a pre-war average of 125-140. The IEA cut its 2026 oil supply forecast by 1.7 mb/d for Q3 and now sees a 4.3 mb/d decline in global supply for 2026, while the EIA raised its Brent forecast to $86.81/bbl for 2026. Brent is trading around $89, WTI near $84. This continues to support energy names (XOM, CVX) and pressure airlines (DAL, UAL). A notable development is Ukraine's agreement to pause drone strikes on oil tankers near Novorossiysk following a request from US VP Vance, which could ease some supply disruption concerns but is not yet a full counter-signal. In AI infrastructure, CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer both beat and raised guidance, with CoreWeave shares up 16.7% premarket and SMCI up 10.8%, reinforcing the AI capex trade. Nebius Group also beat revenue estimates, shares +13% premarket. The July US CPI report is due at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus for +0.1% MoM headline and +0.2% core; markets are pricing ~50% odds of a Fed hike in September. Bitcoin remains in 'hibernation' with perp trading at three-year lows ahead of CPI.