WS #13920

The dominant market narrative remains the escalating Middle East oil supply crisis, with Brent crude approaching $90/bbl and WTI near $84, supported by continued US-Iran tensions, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. However, a key counter-signal has emerged: Ukraine has paused drone strikes on oil tankers using Russian ports at the request of US VP Vance, which could ease some supply disruption concerns. Additionally, OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580k bpd, and Saudi Arabia reported a million-barrel output rebound in July, both of which could dampen the bullish oil thesis. The US CPI report for July is due at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus for +0.1% MoM headline and +0.2% core; markets are pricing ~50% odds of a Fed hike in September, and a cool reading could trigger a dovish repricing. In AI infrastructure, CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer both beat and raised guidance, with CoreWeave shares up 16.7% premarket and SMCI up 10.8%, reinforcing the AI capex trade. Nebius Group also beat revenue estimates, shares +13% premarket. Goldman Sachs announced a $2.3 billion acquisition of ETF provider NEOS, positioning its asset management as a top-eight active ETF provider. Bitcoin remains in 'hibernation' with perp trading at three-year lows ahead of CPI, trading around $64,000.