WS #13921

The July CPI report came in exactly as expected (headline +0.1% MoM, 3.4% YoY; core +0.2% MoM, 2.5% YoY), removing near-term urgency for a Fed hike and lifting equity futures, with Treasury yields declining. This is a neutral-to-supportive macro print that reduces the odds of a hawkish surprise, though inflation remains above target and oil/geopolitics remain swing risks. The oil supply crisis continues to dominate: the IEA now sees a 1.8 million bpd Q3 deficit (more than double prior estimate) as Hormuz flows remain disrupted, and the US EIA raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $86.81/bbl. However, a key counter-signal emerged: Ukraine has paused drone strikes on oil tankers using Russian ports at the request of US VP Vance, which could ease some supply disruption concerns. Additionally, OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580k bpd, and Saudi Arabia reported a million-barrel output rebound in July, both of which could dampen the bullish oil thesis. In AI infrastructure, CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer both beat and raised guidance, with CoreWeave shares up 16.7% premarket and SMCI up 10.8%, reinforcing the AI capex trade. Nebius Group also beat revenue estimates, shares +13% premarket. Goldman Sachs announced a $2.3 billion acquisition of ETF provider NEOS, positioning its asset management as a top-eight active ETF provider. Bitcoin remains in 'hibernation' with perp trading at three-year lows ahead of CPI, trading around $64,000.