WS #13932

The dominant theme remains Middle East tensions with the Strait of Hormuz, but the window shows a notable counter-signal: US crude inventories posted a massive 17.4 million barrel build (largest since January 2023) as exports slumped, which is bearish for oil and could dampen the escalation narrative. However, Brent is still around $88-89.5, and the IEA now forecasts a 1.6M bpd demand decline for 2026, the first since COVID, while OPEC sees growth—a wide divergence. The AI infrastructure supercycle continues to accelerate with CoreWeave, Super Micro, Lumentum, and Nebius all posting blowout results, driving a tech rally led by neocloud and memory names. Intel is surging on insider buying. The July CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, core 2.5%, in line, lowering September rate hike odds to ~40-58%. The LA Lakers sale at $12.5B is a notable private equity/celebrity deal but has limited market impact. Wendy's jumped 15% on a Trian take-private bid. Overall, the market is digesting mixed signals: oil supply glut vs. geopolitical risk, and AI demand strength vs. potential bubble concerns.