WS #13989

The Strait of Hormuz standoff remains the dominant market driver, with Iran's PGSA reiterating that the strait remains blocked until its conditions are met, directly contradicting Trump's claim of US control. Ship traffic through the strait is down ~90% from pre-war levels, and oil prices remain elevated with WTI around $82-83 and Brent near $87-88. The IEA has released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, but analysts question whether global stocks can offset the largest supply disruption on record, with Saudi Aramco estimating 2.6 billion barrels lost since the war began. This supply shock continues to pressure airlines and refiners while benefiting energy producers. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, including the Orsk refinery knocked out for up to 6 months, are tightening global fuel supplies further, with Russian diesel exports at multiyear lows. The US-Iran talks remain in deadlock, with no de-escalation signals, keeping the narrative in an escalation phase. Meanwhile, US CPI data showed cooling inflation, reducing September rate-hike odds to ~40%, which is supporting equities and gold, with gold near $4,400 and seeing strong ETF inflows. The PPI report due today is the next key catalyst. In corporate news, Cisco fell ~6% premarket on weak margin outlook despite solid Q4, while Cerebras dropped ~17% on worse-than-expected revenue. Oracle and AWS expanded their strategic collaboration, with Oracle AI Database@AWS now in 22 regions, supporting ORCL. IREN rose ~6% on Microsoft deployment acceptance. Anthropic is reportedly targeting a $2 trillion IPO valuation in October, which could be the largest listing in history. Ackman unveiled new stakes in Netflix, Visa, and Mastercard. DeepSeek is raising API prices up to 1,100% starting Monday, signaling strong AI demand. JD.com fell on first-ever revenue decline. Maersk raised guidance again after Q2 profit surge, citing solid demand and disruptions. The UK economy grew 0.4% in Q2, fastest in G7, but AI bubble concerns persist with BoE warning of fallout. European companies expected to report 11.4% Q2 revenue growth and 23.4% earnings growth per LSEG IBES.