WS #13990

The dominant market driver remains the Strait of Hormuz standoff, with Iran's Basij paramilitary head Hossein Taeb reiterating that the strait is 'under Iran's control and management,' directly contradicting Trump's claim of US control. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Fars, APA, and several GDELT aggregations), reinforcing the escalation narrative. Ship traffic through the strait remains down ~90% from pre-war levels, and oil prices, while easing slightly today (WTI -2.16% to $81.47, Brent -1.88% to $87.13), remain elevated. The IEA has revised its Q3 deficit estimate to 1.8 million barrels per day, more than double its prior estimate, as Gulf output remains 8.3 mb/d below pre-war levels. This supply shock continues to pressure airlines and refiners while benefiting energy producers. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, including the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat complex in Bashkortostan (fourth attack in three days), are tightening global fuel supplies further, with Russian diesel exports at multiyear lows. The US-Iran talks remain in deadlock, with no de-escalation signals, keeping the narrative in an escalation phase. Meanwhile, US PPI data showed flat July inflation (0.0% MoM vs 0.2% expected), reducing September rate-hike odds to ~36-40%, which is supporting equities and gold, with gold near $4,400 and seeing strong ETF inflows. The PPI report is the key catalyst today, and the cooler data is a counter-signal to the hawkish Fed narrative. In corporate news, Cisco fell ~6% premarket on weak margin outlook despite solid Q4, while Cerebras dropped ~17% on worse-than-expected revenue. Oracle and AWS expanded their strategic collaboration, with Oracle AI Database@AWS now in 22 regions, supporting ORCL. IREN rose ~6% on Microsoft deployment acceptance. Anthropic is reportedly targeting a $2 trillion IPO valuation in October, which could be the largest listing in history. Ackman unveiled new stakes in Netflix, Visa, and Mastercard. DeepSeek is raising API prices up to 1,100% starting Monday, signaling strong AI demand. JD.com fell on first-ever revenue decline. Maersk raised guidance again after Q2 profit surge, citing solid demand and disruptions. The UK economy grew 0.4% in Q2, fastest in G7, but Treasury models warn of near-stagnation in 2027 if Hormuz disruption persists.