WS #14308

The dominant market narrative is the US-Iran conflict and its inflationary consequences, with the Fed's hawkish stance adding pressure. Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech signaled a possible rate hike, pushing the yen past 160 and pressuring tech/growth stocks, while bitcoin slid below $78,000. The Treasury's expanded buyback program (potentially >$4B) is a counter-signal aimed at stabilizing long-end yields, but the 30-year yield remains elevated. Oil prices stay near $90 with Gulf exports recovering to >60% of pre-war levels, yet LNG force majeure and record VLCC rates ($647k/day) keep energy supply concerns alive. The US-Venezuela oil deal (65bn barrels) is a major counter-signal to the oil supply thesis, though its political viability is uncertain. Tech earnings (Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta) crushed expectations, reinforcing the AI buildout narrative, but Marvell's weak outlook and Alibaba's AI-driven profit drop show divergence. Retail earnings (Walmart, Target, Dick's) reveal consumer strain from high gas prices ($4.09/gal).