WS #14309

The dominant market narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its inflationary consequences, with Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech reinforcing rate-hike expectations. Warsh's 'We have work to do' on inflation has pushed the yen past 160, pressured tech/growth stocks, and dragged bitcoin below $78,000, though bitcoin has since rebounded toward $79,000 on Saylor's hinted purchase. The Treasury's expanded buyback program (potentially >$4B) is a counter-signal aimed at stabilizing long-end yields, but the 30-year yield remains elevated. Oil prices hold near $90 with Gulf exports recovering to >60% of pre-war levels, yet LNG force majeure and record VLCC rates ($647k/day) keep energy supply concerns alive. The US-Venezuela oil deal (65bn barrels) is a major counter-signal to the oil supply thesis, though its political viability is uncertain. Tech earnings (Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta) crushed expectations, reinforcing the AI buildout narrative, but Marvell's weak outlook and Alibaba's AI-driven profit drop show divergence. Retail earnings (Walmart, Target, Dick's) reveal consumer strain from high gas prices ($4.09/gal).