WS #14320

The dominant Middle East escalation narrative remains stable, with the oil supply counter-signal (bypass tactics, US-Venezuela deal) still in play but unchanged. No new data points warrant updating the key developments list. This window carries 4 key development(s), 2 at significance:high: Persian Gulf producers bypass Hormuz, oil prices fall; US-Venezuela oil deal to refill SPR, details unclear. A further 2 development(s) sit below significance:high.