WS #14321

The dominant Middle East escalation narrative remains stable, with the oil supply counter-signal (bypass tactics, US-Venezuela deal) still in play but unchanged. No new data points warrant updating the key developments list. This window carries 4 key development(s), 2 at significance:high: US-Venezuela oil deal to control 65bn barrels, refill SPR, details unclear; Saudi Arabia increases Yanbu loadings to bypass Hormuz, oil prices fall. A further 2 development(s) sit below significance:high.