WS #14339

The dominant market-moving narrative remains the US strike on Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which is escalating. Multiple sources (Guardian, DW, CBC, AP, and various OSINT feeds) corroborate the strike, marking the first US military action in a month. Iran's IRGC has vowed retaliation, and a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait, raising the risk of supply disruption. Oil prices are already reacting: Murban crude is up 4.04% to $95.75, and gasoline is up 3.12%, with expectations of large gains when markets open. This is bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, MPC, PSX) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and shipping (MATX, ZIM). The Fed's hawkish stance, with Chair Warsh calling inflation 'concerning' and markets pricing a 60% chance of a September rate hike, remains a countervailing force for equities, particularly high-multiple tech. The US-Venezuela oil deal continues, with Venezuela vowing to retain control of its oil, which could add supply and dampen oil price spikes. The Canada-US trade war is escalating, with Trump ranting against Canadian goods and Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs, which could pressure industrials and auto stocks. Aon's potential $17B acquisition of USI is a notable M&A signal for the insurance sector.