WS #14340
Holding: newest synthesis is 36d 16h old
The dominant Hormuz strike narrative remains unchanged with no new data points. The situation is stable, and the previous synthesis remains accurate. This window carries 5 key development(s), 3 at significance:high: US strikes Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in first military action in weeks; Oil prices surge: Murban crude +4.04% to $95.75, gasoline +3.12%; Fed rate hike odds rise to ~56% for September after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. A further 2 development(s) sit below significance:high.
Topics
Key developments
- US strikes Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in first military action in weeks
- Oil prices surge: Murban crude +4.04% to $95.75, gasoline +3.12%
- Fed rate hike odds rise to ~56% for September after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech
- Trump announces deal for US control of Venezuelan oil fields
- Canada-US trade war escalates: Canada to impose retaliatory tariffs on $20B US goods