WS #14354

The dominant theme this window is renewed US-Iran military escalation, which is ESCALATING. US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, the first US strike on Iran since late July, and Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan. Brent crude jumped over 2% to above $90/barrel, with WTI near $84.32. This is corroborated across multiple sources (AP, Reuters, GDELT, OSINT feeds). The escalation is compounded by Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement of weekly secondary sanctions on banks to isolate Iran financially, and Iran's claim it shot down a US MQ-9 drone. The Fed rate-hike narrative is also intensifying: Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech has pushed September hike odds to ~56-60%, pressuring Asian equities and gold. A counter-signal is the US-Venezuela oil deal, which could add supply and dampen oil price spikes, but this is early-stage. The US-Canada trade war is also escalating with Trump imposing 50% tariffs and urging Canadian companies to relocate, which pressures Canadian-linked equities and benefits US manufacturing. Apple's September 9 iPhone event and new CEO John Ternus taking over September 1 are notable but secondary to the macro risk-off tone.