WS #15294

Global markets are navigating a complex divergence between geopolitical supply shocks and easing monetary expectations. While the Middle East remains in a state of escalation—marked by the seizure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and continued OPEC+ tightness—oil prices have paradoxically retreated as the G7 coordinated a strategic reserve release to dampen the crisis. This intervention has successfully capped the energy premium, allowing Brent to dip below $102, though flows remain disrupted. Concurrently, US Treasury yields have retreated following a softer-than-expected jobs report, reducing the immediate probability of a hawkish Fed pivot and providing a tailwind for Asian equities and growth stocks.