WS #5812

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with President Trump ordering the Navy to 'shoot and kill' Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This follows his earlier claim that the US struck 'about 75% of targets' in Iran and that he personally intervened to keep the Strait closed. The situation is escalating, with Brent crude prices already elevated and the Strait's closure threatening global oil supply. This is corroborated by multiple sources including a direct Trump statement, a Bluesky post, and market commentary noting the energy price shock. The second major signal is Intel's blowout quarter, with shares surging after hours on strong AI-related chip demand, lifting semiconductor ETFs. This is a positive counter-signal to any broader tech weakness. Third, Meta is cutting 8,000 jobs (10% of staff) for efficiency and AI investment, while Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to 8,750 US employees. These tech layoffs signal ongoing cost discipline and AI-driven restructuring. Fourth, a US soldier was arrested for allegedly making $409,881 on Polymarket using classified information about the Maduro capture, highlighting insider trading risks on prediction markets. Finally, Bitcoin is rallying above $79,000 with analysts eyeing $80,000 as a key level, supported by $2.03 billion in spot ETF inflows in April and institutional buying.