WS #5813

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with a US-sanctioned supertanker carrying Iranian oil attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while the Strait remains effectively closed. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Bloomberg and Greek market commentary noting the dollar index near 98.54 and EUR/USD below 1.17. The situation is escalating, with Brent crude prices already elevated and the Strait's closure threatening global oil supply. The second major signal is the confirmation of major tech layoffs: Meta is cutting 8,000 jobs (10% of staff) and Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to approximately 8,750 US employees, both citing AI investment costs. This is corroborated by multiple sources including GDELT and Thai news. Third, the US soldier insider trading case on Polymarket is gaining traction, with GDELT reporting the FBI director's statement. Fourth, Japan has made a historic shift in arms export policy, removing the ban on lethal weapons exports, which could impact defense stocks. Finally, the S&P rating review for Greece is expected tonight, which could affect Greek bonds and European markets.