WS #5974

The dominant signal remains the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting, with new details: suspect identified as Cole Thomas Allen, 31, from Torrance, California, armed with shotgun, handgun, and knives, intending to target Trump administration officials. This escalates security threat narrative but unlikely to have sustained market impact beyond short-term volatility in defense/security stocks. Separately, Iran diplomacy stalls: Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan for talks, citing unacceptable Iranian proposal and internal Iranian leadership disputes. This corroborates earlier Strait of Hormuz blockade narrative and adds to geopolitical risk premium for energy and shipping. A Malian rebel report of shooting down a Russian helicopter adds to geopolitical noise but is low impact for US markets. The Polymarket trades on US-Iran meeting and Iran leadership change reflect market pricing of diplomatic resolution odds. The earthquake in Japan is minor and not market-moving. The rest is noise.