WS #5975

The dominant signal remains the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting, with new details: suspect in custody, Trump and Vance evacuated. Trump states shooting won't deter him from Iran war, but cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for talks, indicating stalled diplomacy. This escalates geopolitical risk premium for energy and defense. Separately, Netanyahu orders 'vigorous attack' on Hezbollah, and fears of civil war in Lebanon rise, adding to Middle East instability. The Iran peace talks stall is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Al Jazeera, GDELT), reinforcing bearish sentiment for equities and bullish for oil. The shooting itself is unlikely to have sustained market impact beyond short-term volatility in security stocks. Other items (Chernobyl anniversary, UK politics, sports injury) are noise.