WS #6094

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of Iran-US tensions, with reports that US forces blocked Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran rejecting a second round of talks. This has caused European markets to fall and oil prices to rise sharply. Separately, OpenAI and Microsoft announced a renegotiated partnership, removing exclusivity and allowing OpenAI to serve customers on any cloud, which has implications for MSFT and AMZN. The White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting aftermath continues, with Trump calling for ABC to fire Jimmy Kimmel, but this is noise. Shell's $16.4B acquisition of ARC Resources is confirmed. Bernstein sees IREN pivoting from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud, with a $3.7B revenue run rate. David Silver raised $1.1B for a new AI lab. China blocked Meta's $2B acquisition of AI startup Manus, a setback for META. European military spending rose 14% in 2025 per SIPRI. The Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday. Overall, the Iran situation is escalating, which is bearish for equities and bullish for oil and defense.