WS #6095
The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of Iran-US tensions, with reports that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked and oil prices rising. US gas prices hit $4.11/gallon, up for the fifth consecutive day. Mexico is spending $2.5B pesos weekly to cap fuel prices. The White House expressed eagerness to work with the Senate on Kevin Warsh's confirmation, which could signal a Fed leadership change. Treasuries slid as oil prices offset auction results. Polymarket shows bets on Kharg Island oil terminal being hit by April 30. Canada announced a $25B CAD sovereign wealth fund to counter US trade pressures. Spain's military spending surged 50% to 2.42% of GDP. Qualcomm shares spiked 12% on rumors of a smartphone chip partnership with OpenAI, but gains faded. A large dark pool trade of 335,000 AVGO shares ($139M) was detected. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq turned positive late in the session. Overall, the Iran situation is escalating, which is bearish for equities and bullish for oil and defense.
Key developments
- Iran-US tensions escalate: Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, oil prices rise, US gas at $4.11/gallon
- White House eager to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed chair; Powell exit probability at 80%
- Canada launches $25B CAD sovereign wealth fund to counter US trade pressures
- Qualcomm spikes 12% on OpenAI chip partnership rumors, gains fade
- Spain's military spending surges 50% to 2.42% of GDP; European defense spending up 14%
- Dark pool alert: 335,000 AVGO shares traded at $415.6, total $139M
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq turn positive late session, up 0.11% and 0.14% respectively