WS #6217

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war and its energy market implications, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources confirm Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (Tuapse refinery, Perm oil pumping station) and a Ukrainian Navy strike on a shadow fleet tanker in the Black Sea, directly tightening global oil supply. Oil has topped $100, with the USO ETF hitting its highest level since 2015. Citi forecasts $150/barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June. The White House confirmed discussions on continuing the Iran blockade for months. This is driving a broad market impact: energy stocks (XOM, CVX) are bullish, while airlines (DAL, UAL) and travel-related stocks (BKNG) are bearish due to jet fuel supply squeezes and guidance cuts. Booking Holdings cut FY26 guidance citing the Hormuz crisis. O-I Glass plunged 16% pre-market after cutting guidance on higher global energy costs. The Fed is expected to pause today, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until at least mid-2027. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ adds further uncertainty to oil markets. On the MAG7 front, today is a massive earnings day with GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, and META reporting after the close. Implied moves are large (MSFT 6.9%, META 7.0%). Visa (V) surged 9% on strong earnings and AI-driven commerce expansion, a positive signal for payments. SoFi (SOFI) fell after Q2 revenue guidance missed estimates. The macro energy crisis is the dominant force, but tech earnings will be the key catalyst for the next 8 hours.