WS #6218

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war and its energy market implications, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources confirm Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (Tuapse, Perm, Orsk refineries) and a Ukrainian Navy strike on a shadow fleet tanker in the Black Sea, directly tightening global oil supply. Oil has topped $100, with WTI at $105 and Brent at $115, up ~5% in the session. The White House confirmed discussions on continuing the Iran blockade for months, and the Wall Street Journal reports Trump has ordered preparations for a prolonged blockade. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ adds further uncertainty, though Russia says it will remain in OPEC+. The IAEA warns Iran could access its near weapons-grade uranium stockpile, adding nuclear risk. The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, noting the Middle East war as a source of uncertainty and assuming oil declines to $75 by mid-2027. The Fed is expected to pause today, with markets pricing no rate cuts until at least mid-2027. On the MAG7 front, today is a massive earnings day with GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, and META reporting after the close. Implied moves are large (MSFT 6.9%, META 7.0%). Seagate (STX) reported better-than-expected Q3 results and issued Q4 guidance above estimates, driving shares higher. General Dynamics (GD) beat Q1 estimates. Avis Budget (CAR) missed Q1 estimates, shares falling. The macro energy crisis is the dominant force, but tech earnings will be the key catalyst for the next 8 hours.