WS #6255
The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran conflict, with oil prices surging above $118/bbl on reports of an extended US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% in Powell's last meeting as chair, with a record 4 dissents, signaling deep division. Powell announced he will stay on as governor, defying Trump and denying him a board seat. The Pentagon publicly priced the Iran war at $25bn so far. Big Tech earnings were mixed: Alphabet and Amazon beat on strong cloud/AI growth, while Meta beat but fell on raised capex guidance ($125-145bn). Anthropic is in talks at a $900bn valuation, topping OpenAI. Oil price surge is bearish for airlines/consumer, bullish for energy. The Fed hold and Powell's defiance are neutral for markets but add political uncertainty. The Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING with no de-escalation signals.
Key developments
- Oil surges above $118/bbl as US prepares extended Strait of Hormuz blockade
- Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75% with record 4 dissents; Powell to stay as governor
- Pentagon prices Iran war at $25bn; Hegseth defends $1.5 trillion defense budget
- Alphabet Q1 profit nearly doubles on 63% cloud growth; Amazon AWS revenue $37.6B
- Meta beats Q1 but falls after raising 2026 capex to $125-145B
- Anthropic in talks at $900B valuation, surpassing OpenAI